The International Cocoa Organization publishes today its revised forecast for the 2021/22 cocoa year and its revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2020/21 cocoa year. The data published in Issue 3 – Volume XLVIII – Cocoa Year 2021/22 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics reflects the most recent information available to the Secretariat at the beginning of August 2022.
Incoming data on arrivals and purchases reflect expectations of lower global production for the 2021/22 season. Inflation has weighed on the prices of agricultural inputs, leading to a reduction in the use of fertilizers, which, combined with less favorable weather and disease conditions, has contributed to the downward trend observed in the world production of cocoa.
Demand for cocoa has held up on several fronts despite rising input costs, including high energy costs, supply chain issues and rising interest rates, among others. Indeed, demand has so far remained stable over the season and the observed reduction in global supply has so far been less disruptive to the cocoa market. Yet, it should be noted that with the current downturn in the global economy, the demand for cocoa is subject to many uncertainties.
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Summary of Revised Forecasts and Estimates
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Cocoa year
(Oct-Sept)
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2020/21
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2021/22
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From year to year
change
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amended
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Previous
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amended
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estimates
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forecast a/
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forecasts
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(thousands of tons)
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(percentage)
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Global gross production
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5,244
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4,923
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4,890
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– 354
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– 6.8%
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Grindings of the world
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4,998
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5,048
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5,071
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+ 73
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+ 1.5%
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Surplus deficit b/
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+ 194
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– 174
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– 230
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End of season stocks
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1,913
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1,754
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1,683
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– 230
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– 12%
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Stocks/grindings ratio
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38.3%
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34.7%
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33.2%
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