The week ended with New York cocoa falling to an 11-month low and London cocoa falling to a month-and-a-half low on fears rising inflation could dampen demand for chocolate, reported barchart.com.
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) also released a report warning that “rising inflation could limit consumption of non-essentials and luxuries, including cocoa products, if the situation persists”
Production is expected to fall by 6% to 4.923 million tonnes. Grindings, on the other hand, are expected to increase by almost 2% to 5.048 million tonnes. The gap will be covered by a stock reduction of 9%, the ICCO said in its latest monthly report.
Several factors, including adverse weather conditions and diseases, are negatively impacting the current season’s production, with concerns over the size and quality of the ongoing mid-crop in West Africa.
Following the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, trade disruptions, sanctions and high freight rates are affecting the cocoa and fertilizer trade. The shortage of fertilizers in cocoa plantations will most likely affect the quantity, quality and size of cocoa beans next year.
On a more positive note, the ICCO said that despite the geopolitical and economic challenges currently facing the world, cocoa demand for the first half of the 2021-22 season has so far maintained a positive stance.
“Factors that have contributed to the increased demand for cocoa include the resumption of activities in the airline sector, which is a major gateway for chocolate sales, as well as the resumption of seasonal festivities.
“Positive quarterly earnings reports from major confectionery makers for the period January to March 2022 also reveal that sales of confectionery, which includes chocolate, has picked up and is heading or on par with era trends. pre-COVID-19said the ICCO.